The rape and murder of a doctor at the government-run RG Kar Hospital in Kolkata has thrown the Trinamool Congress (TMC) under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee into its most perilous crisis yet. This atrocity has ignited a firestorm of public fury, the likes of which Bengal hasn’t witnessed in years. For the first time in a long while, Kolkata’s streets and beyond have been flooded with spontaneous protests from all quarters — students, ordinary citizens, and civil society alike. The Nabanna Abhijan, a massive march towards the state secretariat, erupted this week, with clashes and violence marking the intensity of the unrest. The clarion call? Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s resignation.

What’s unprecedented in this scenario is the schism within the Trinamool Congress itself. The party’s leadership appears fractured, with several senior figures openly criticising the state government, the police, and other state-run authorities. This internal dissent is alarming and suggests a potential ‘Singur-Nandigram’ moment for Mamata Banerjee—a turning point that could herald the beginning of her political decline.

As we inch closer to the 2026 assembly elections, the political landscape in Bengal seems more uncertain than ever. The question on everyone’s lips is whether Mamata Banerjee will lose her grip on power. The answer, however, isn’t straightforward. While the massive protests indicate widespread dissatisfaction, it would be premature to predict Banerjee’s downfall solely on this incident. The opposition in Bengal remains fragmented and lacks the cohesive force necessary to mount a formidable challenge to her reign.

Yes, Mamata Banerjee’s invincibility may be waning, and her return to power in 2026 might be with diminished strength. Yet, to assume that this singular incident signifies the end of her era would be a miscalculation. The protests are loud, but they are not yet a death knell for Banerjee’s political career.

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Public Outcry And Internal Dissent

The public outrage in West Bengal is widespread, presenting the most significant challenge to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s 13-year rule. Moreso, because the protesters are not political rivals, but by the state’s own people, there is dissent within the ruling party.

In 2011, Mamata Banerjee shattered the 35-year reign of the Left, ushering in a new political era in West Bengal. Over the past 13 years, she has faced numerous challenges, but the past few years have been marked by an unprecedented wave of public outrage. Scandals have piled up — ranging from teacher recruitment irregularities to the arrest of top TMC leaders, the coal scam, and various other corruption charges. Despite this, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) perform remarkably well electorally — the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the panchayat elections before that, for example.

Though the current wave of protests sweeping across Kolkata and Bengal signals something deeper, with ordinary citizens taking to the streets in spontaneous demonstrations, it’s critical to understand that this surge of anger doesn’t automatically translate into votes against Mamata Banerjee. To channel this public discontent into electoral success, the presence of a strong and cohesive opposition is essential — something that Bengal currently lacks.

The unrest we witness today is not a mere political agitation. Unlike the Singur and Nandigram protests, where the issues were more straightforward, today’s grievances are deeply rooted and much more sensitive. During those earlier movements, Mamata Banerjee had the political acumen to turn public outcry into electoral victory. But now, the opposition parties in Bengal seem unable to harness the energy of the current protests for political gain.

Adding to the complexity is the division within the TMC itself. Mamata’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee has distanced himself from the controversy, openly criticising the state administration. Other leaders have also expressed dissent. This internal discord has amplified the public’s dissatisfaction. However, despite these fissures, it’s likely that when push comes to shove, all these leaders will ultimately fall in line with Mamata Banerjee’s command.

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Absence Of Credible Opposition

In West Bengal’s political landscape, there’s an adage that Mamata Banerjee was the finest opposition leader the state ever saw. Today, however, opposition politics in Bengal is a shadow of its former self.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which should be the principal challenger to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, is plagued by infighting and a lack of direction. The party’s top leaders in Bengal seem to be speaking in disparate voices, with no unity or clear strategy in sight. When a major incident erupts, the BJP’s response is tepid, limited to routine statements, without a meaningful follow-up. The party’s inability to grasp the pulse of Bengal’s electorate is glaring, as they continue to repeat the same mistakes, leaning heavily on central leadership for decisions and campaigns. This over-reliance has stunted the growth of the BJP in Bengal, and the momentum they once gained is steadily slipping away.

On the other side lies the once-mighty CPI(M), now reduced to a mere shadow of its former self. Since Mamata Banerjee’s rise to power, the Left has withered into near non-existence. While they might still manage to mobilise people for street protests, translating that into votes is a different story altogether. The 2024 Lok Sabha election was a stark reminder of this decline, as the Left-Congress alliance failed to secure a single seat. Their absence in the West Bengal Assembly underscores their political irrelevance.

The crux of Bengal’s political dilemma is the absence of a credible opposition leader — someone who can command the trust of both urban Kolkata and rural Bengal. Mamata Banerjee, during her time in opposition, was a leader with broad appeal and deep roots in the electorate. The BJP, despite its status as the opposition, has failed to cultivate a leader with the necessary credibility. Without such a figure, the prospect of unseating Mamata Banerjee remains a distant dream.

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Steady Minority Vote Bank Secures Mamata’s Power

In the complex landscape of West Bengal politics, one crucial factor consistently underpins Mamata Banerjee’s electoral success: the unwavering support of the state’s 30% Muslim population. This demographic, once loyal to the Left, has now shifted almost entirely to the Trinamool Congress (TMC), providing a critical vote bank that any political party would envy.

Despite the swirling public outcry and mounting agitation on various issues, the Muslim electorate has remained firmly aligned with Mamata Banerjee. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has long struggled to make inroads into this community, and it’s unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future. Although there were moments when it seemed Muslims might return to the Left-Congress fold, such hopes were dashed by national policies like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and other initiatives perceived as threatening to the community. These policies have deepened fears and solidified the belief that only Mamata Banerjee can shield them from potential harm under a BJP-led government.

Significantly, the ongoing protests in West Bengal, sparked by various grievances, have not seen large-scale participation from the Muslim community. This absence underscores their continued loyalty to Mamata Banerjee, even in the face of scandals and public outcry.

This steadfast support makes it extraordinarily difficult for any opposition to unseat Mamata Banerjee, regardless of the current turmoil. The Muslim vote, a bedrock of her political foundation, remains intact, ensuring that she continues to hold a formidable position in Bengal’s political arena. The BJP’s inability to appeal to this key demographic further cements her stronghold, making her defeat in the state an uphill battle.

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Power Of Social Welfare Schemes

One of the key reasons Mamata Banerjee remains difficult to unseat, despite protests and public outcry, is her robust portfolio of social welfare schemes. A crucial pillar of her support base is rural women, who have greatly benefited from initiatives like Lakshmir Bhandar, which provides direct cash transfers to women, as well as Kanyashree, Yuvashree, and Sabuj Sathi. These financial schemes are designed with women in mind, ensuring their loyalty to TMC.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election serves as a telling example. Despite the turmoil surrounding the Sandeshkhali incidents, women in the area rallied behind Banerjee, and the TMC emerged victorious in that constituency. This underscores the deep-rooted support that Banerjee commands among rural women, making her a formidable force in Bengal politics.

To challenge her effectively, the opposition must be more than just reactive; it needs to turn every issue into a battleground against the ruling party. Until the opposition develops a cohesive strategy and a compelling alternative, defeating Mamata Banerjee in the 2026 assembly election will remain an uphill task. Her welfare schemes have woven a safety net around her political fortunes, one that won’t easily unravel.

The author teaches journalism at St Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a political columnist. 

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